Market Wrap-up and a look ahead

September marked a turning point for monetary policy. A strong jobs report and steady inflation set the stage for the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023. Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions lifted oil back above $100 a barrel, and long-term Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels in roughly two decades. Through it all, technology continued to lead. The NASDAQ posted a monthly gain, the S&P 500 finished close to even, and the Dow concluded its five-month winning streak.

We invite you to explore the updates below on the markets, economic data, and global news.

Market Update: September
  • The NASDAQ led the way with a gain of about 1.9%, its second straight positive month, supported by continued strength in semiconductor and AI-related names.
  • The S&P 500 slipped about 0.5% for the month and closed September at 7,651.54. Early in the month, the index reached record territory, and it finished the third quarter with a gain of roughly 2%.
  • The Dow gave back about 4.3% and closed the month at 50,906.05, concluding its five-month winning streak as rising bond yields weighed on financial stocks.
Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights:
  • Technology stood as the only S&P 500 sector to finish September with a gain, while financials, materials, and real estate each gave back roughly 6% to 7% as higher yields and oil prices lifted borrowing costs. Small caps and the equal-weight S&P 500 trailed the broader market by a wide margin.
  • Corporate profitability remains a bright spot overall. Late-September data shows analysts expecting S&P 500 earnings growth of about 29% for the third quarter, up from roughly 27% at the end of June.
Economic Data: Rates, Inflation, Labor Market

  • The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 16 to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023, in a unanimous decision. Chair Warsh named inflation as the committee’s top priority, and updated projections point to one additional hike this year. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2% late in the month, its highest level in nearly two decades.
  • August CPI rose 0.4% for the month and held at a 3.4% annual rate. Annual core inflation eased to 2.4%, its lowest reading since March 2021. Gasoline rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase, while shelter advanced 0.3%.
  • The August jobs report showed payrolls growing by 162,000, which was later revised downward to 133,000, well ahead of expectations for 53,000 and the strongest gain since March. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and labor force participation edged up to 61.6%. Investors read the strength as support for a Fed rate hike.

Geopolitical & Notable Global Developments:
  • Oil climbed sharply over the month, with Brent crude topping $107 a barrel on September 28 before settling near $97 at month-end. Middle Eastern crude exports recovered to roughly 12.8 million barrels per day in September as alternative shipping routes came back into use.
  • Gold eased from mid-month levels near $4,278 an ounce to roughly $4,159 by September 30 as a firmer dollar and rising yields weighed on bullion.

Here’s What to Look for this month:

Key events and data releases to watch in include:

  • October 2: September Jobs Report – hot off the press: 29,000
  • October 14: September CPI (Inflation) Release
  • October 27-28: Federal Reserve Meeting

September delivered a meaningful shift in policy. The Fed has now begun to raise rates, and core inflation continues to ease even as headline prices remain elevated. October brings fresh readings on jobs and inflation, another Fed meeting, and the start of third-quarter earnings season. As always, day-to-day headlines tend to look larger up close than they do within the context of a long-term plan.

We invite you to reach out with any thoughts about the month’s market activity, your portfolio, or your broader financial plan. Give us a call today!

Sources:

https://www.npr.org/2026/09/16/nx-s1-5968724/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation-economy

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-report-august-2026.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo

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