November Wrap-up and What’s to come for the rest of the year
Each month, we will bring you a recap on major market activity and economic news, as well as important dates to come in the following month.
Market Update: November
The November 2025 market environment was complex due to changing expectations of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the government shutdown, and delays in data releases, among other factors. The month began with significant volatility in the technology sector, driven by concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, followed by a recovery fueled by dovish Federal Reserve commentary and corporate earnings resilience.
- The S&P 500 finished up 0.25%, bringing the year-to-date gain to 17.81%. The gain came from broader performance from non-tech related sectors.
- The healthcare sector was the biggest winner in November, up 9.31%, having its best performance since April 2020. The rally was driven by a mix of defensive rotation, attractive valuations, and positive sentiment.
- The technology sector finished down 4.29% for the month, which was the biggest sector decline for November. Major tech names like Nvidia, AMD, and Palantir saw double-digit declines even as some reported solid earnings, possibly because investors worried that recent gains overly relied on optimism about AI and rapid revenue growth.
Economic Data: Rates, Inflation, Labor Market
The Fed maintained a cautious stance on further rate cuts despite market expectations for easing.
- A 0.25% rate cut in October had little market impact, and Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell emphasized that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion,” citing mixed economic signals and data disruptions caused by the government shutdown.
- Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, driven by energy and housing costs, but consumer spending and corporate balance sheets remain robust, supporting economic stability.
- Liquidity in the U.S. financial system remains high, with over $20 trillion in cash and equivalents, providing potential fuel for markets if deployed.
Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights:
- About 95% of S&P 500 companies reported results for Q3, of which 83% reported positive EPS surprise and 76% of companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
- The blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 13.4%. If that holds for the quarter, it will mark the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.
Geopolitical and Notable Global Developments:
- The U.S. and China announced a trade and economic deal that eased tensions, with reciprocal tariff reductions, commitments to resume specific trade flows, including soybean purchases, and suspended rare-earth export controls. This agreement has helped stabilize markets and reduce immediate trade-related risks
- Tariff costs are expected to continue affecting consumer prices, particularly during the holiday shopping season.
- President Trump is set to name a new Federal Reserve Chair, which could potentially impact markets.
Here’s What to Look for in December:
Looking ahead, several key events and data releases may influence market direction:
- Political developments, including the Federal Reserve Chair, may influence market sentiment. As of this blog posting, the next Chair has not been named.
- Inflation data updates and holiday consumer spending trends, which will be critical for assessing economic momentum.
Key dates for December:
- Continued Q4: Earnings reports from major corporations, which will provide further clarity on economic and sectoral trends.
- December 9-10: The Fed’s policy meeting will take place and further interest rate decisions are expected amid mixed economic signals and market anticipation of easing.
- December 24: Christmas Eve, markets close early.
- December 25: Christmas Day, markets closed.
- December 31: New Years Eve, markets open regular hours. Bond market closes early (2pm).
Overall, November’s market gains were driven by healthcare and defensive sectors amid a backdrop of cautious monetary policy and resilient consumer fundamentals. Investors continue to monitor central bank actions, geopolitical developments, and corporate earnings as the year-end approaches.
As always, please reach out to us with any questions.
Sources:
https://www.morningstar.com/markets
Disclosures:
Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All investing involves risk including loss of principal.
No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio.
Diversification does not protect against market risk.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The prices of small cap stocks are generally more volatile than large cap stocks.
The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 index, which represents approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Investment advice offered through Shepherd Financial Partners, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply any level of skill or training.
Securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Shepherd Financial Partners and LPL Financial are separate entities.
Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on Shepherd Financial Partners, LLC’s Form ADV Part 2, which is available by request.
Tracking #: 832172-1
