Market Wrap-up and What’s to come in August

July was a demonstration of resilience. Encouraging inflation data early in the month gave investors a welcome lift. While renewed friction between the U.S. and Iran and a busy earnings season introduced some day-to-day movement, markets took it in stride. The Dow was a bright spot, and a good reminder that underlying fundamentals have continued to hold up in a headline-heavy month. It notched its fourth straight monthly gain and closed at a record high. 

See below for more updates on the markets, economic data, and global news. 

Market Update: JUNE

  • The S&P 500 held essentially steady for the month, a pause that looks minor set against the index’s strong run over the past year. 
  • The NASDAQ took a breather, easing nearly 7% after an exceptional multi-month run, as investors took a more measured, wait-and-see approach to Big Tech’s substantial AI infrastructure spending and semiconductor names cooled off from recent highs.  
  • The Dow edged higher for a fourth consecutive month and closed out July at a record high (just shy of 52,500), underscoring the steadiness beneath the month’s headlines. 
Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights:
  • Bank earnings kicked off the season on a strong note, with many topping analyst expectations. 
  • Big Tech reported mixed results in the back half of the month. Revenue beat estimates across the board, led by strong cloud growth. Stock reactions diverged as investors rewarded disciplined spending guidance and pushed back on rising AI CapEx. Semiconductor and chip makers thrived, capping one of their best quarters on record.  
  • Energy stocks were a bright spot in July, with some posting their strongest monthly results in years as the rise in oil prices during the quarter lifted profits well above year-ago levels. 

Economic Data: Rates, Inflation, Labor Market

  • The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its July 28-29 meeting, Chair Warsh’s second at the helm. A few committee members favored a rate hike, which reflects the kind of debate one would expect as the Fed continues to carefully balance its inflation and employment goals. 
  • June CPI, released July 14, cooled more than expected to a 3.5% annual rate, down from 4.2% in May, marking the largest one-month improvement in headline inflation since April 2020 and a welcome sign for household budgets. 

Geopolitical & Notable Global Developments:
  • Tensions between the U.S. and Iran picked back up in early July, following a brief pause in hostilities and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz. By month’s end, both sides were once again signaling openness to de-escalation, echoing the pattern seen throughout the year. 
  • Oil prices moved higher over the course of July, up roughly 23% for the month, reflecting the renewed geopolitical activity, though prices eased in the final days of July as diplomatic signals improved.   
  • Saudi Arabia convened talks with representatives from more than 40 countries to coordinate on protecting regional shipping routes, an example of the broader international cooperation working to keep global trade flowing smoothly. 

Here’s What to Look for in August:

Key events and data releases to watch in include:

  • August 7: July Jobs Report
  • August 12: July CPI (Inflation) Release

July was full of headlines. Inflation appears to be moving in the right direction. The labor market continues to normalize in an orderly way. Corporate earnings have remained healthy even as companies invest for the future. The gap between the noise and the calmer long-term trend is worth keeping in mind heading into the back half of summer. 

If you have thoughts about the month’s market activity, your portfolio, or your broader financial plan, don’t hesitate to reach out. We’d love to chat.  

Have a wonderful August! 

Sources:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260729.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_07022026.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07142026.htm

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

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