Market Wrap-up and What’s to come in JULY

After nine straight weeks of gains, June saw a slowdown. Markets took time to get accustomed to a new Fed chair’s first meeting and a wave of scrutiny around AI infrastructure spending, while easing tensions in the Middle East and falling oil prices gave investors real reasons for optimism heading into the second half of the year.

See below for more updates on the markets, economic data, and global news.

Market Update: JUNE

  • The S&P 500 fell roughly 1% in June, snapping its two-month winning streak, though it still closed out one of its best quarterly performances since 2020, more than 15% for the April-June period.
  • The NASDAQ capped an exceptionally strong quarter, up around 20% since the end of March, powered by continued enthusiasm around AI. The index took a breather in the back half of June as investors took some chips off the table in select tech names, a natural pause after such a strong run.
  • The Dow stood out, rising more than 2.5% in June and crossing the 52,000 mark for the first time.
Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights:
  • Full Q2 earnings season begins mid-July, and investors will be watching closely for evidence that Big Tech’s enormous AI infrastructure spending is starting to generate returns.
  • Within technology, performance varied by sub-sector, as investors grew more skeptical about near-future returns. Semiconductor and chip makers thrived, capping one of their best quarters on record.
  • Energy-sector stocks came under pressure as oil prices retreated on the Iran ceasefire, even as the broader economy benefited from lower fuel costs.

Economic Data: Rates, Inflation, Labor Market

  • The Fed’s benchmark rate was kept steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting on June 17, in Chair Warsh’s first meeting at the helm; updated projections show 9 of 18 policymakers now anticipate a hike before year-end.
  • The U.S. added just 57,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, a soft report as leisure and hospitality shed jobs and prior months (April and May) were revised down by a combined 74,000.
  • CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year (up from 3.8% in April).

Geopolitical & Notable Global Developments:
  • The U.S. and Iran signed “Islamabad Memorandum” on June 17. The deal provides a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
  • Oil prices fell meaningfully over the second half of June (roughly 20% for the month) as the ceasefire took hold, with Brent crude retreating to its lowest level since before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began. Lower energy prices offered some relief after May increases.
  • Kevin Warsh led his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Fed Chair on June 16-17. The committee voted unanimously (12-0) to hold rates steady at 3.5-3.75%.

Here’s What to Look for in July:

Key events and data releases to watch in include:

  • July 3-4: Independence Day Observed – Markets Closed
  • July 14: June CPI (Inflation) Release
  • July 28-29: Next Federal Reserve Meeting
  • Mid-July: Q2 Earnings Season Begins

There was a lot to like beneath the month’s noise. June markets closed out one of its strongest quarters in years. That gap between the noisy month-to-month headlines and the calmer long-term trend is worth considering as we move into summer.

If any of this leaves you with questions, that’s exactly the kind of conversation worth having with your Shepherd team. If you have thoughts about the month’s market activity, your portfolio, or your broader financial plan, don’t hesitate to reach out.[KG1] 

Have a wonderful July!

Sources:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm

https://www.bls.gov/ces/news.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/business/stock-market-up-inflation-war

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-sector-outlook

https://www.npr.org/2026/06/17/nx-s1-5860084/fed-chief-warsh-first-fomc-meeting

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