Market Wrap-up and What’s to come in the month ahead

August was a tale of two halves. Cooler inflation and a soft jobs report early in the month eased worries about a Federal Reserve rate hike and carried the S&P 500 to a record close. The back half brought renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities and a pointed inflation warning from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, which pushed oil and bond yields higher into the final week. Even with that late-month turbulence, all three major indexes finished August in positive territory, and the Dow extended its winning streak to five straight months.

See below for more updates on the markets, economic data, and global news.

Market Update: August
  • The S&P 500 gained roughly 2.6% for the month, snapping a two-month stall. The index set a record close of 7,757.64 on August 7 before easing back to finish August at 7,686.14.
  • The NASDAQ led the way with a gain of about 3.9%, its first positive month in three, helped by a rebound in semiconductor and chip names after July’s pullback.
  • The Dow added about 1.3% and closed the month at 53,185.90, its fifth consecutive monthly advance, despite giving back 374 points on the final trading day of August.
Corporate Earnings and Sector Highlights:
  • Nvidia’s late-August report was the quarter’s headline event. Revenue came in at $96.2 billion, more than double a year ago, with earnings of $2.22 per share ahead of expectations. Guidance for the current quarter was strong, though management flagged that rising memory costs will pressure margins into year-end.
  • Technology led the sector table for much of the month, while energy benefited from higher crude prices and healthcare names lent mid-month support to the Dow.
  • Corporate profitability remained a bright spot overall. In his Jackson Hole remarks, Chair Warsh pointed to roughly 20% profit growth over the past year among S&P 500 companies alongside solid business investment.

Economic Data: Rates, Inflation, Labor Market

  • The Fed did not meet in August, leaving the benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Speaking at Jackson Hole on August 28, Chair Warsh said inflation remains too high and opened the door to a hike in the coming months. Futures markets responded by lifting September hike odds to roughly 56%, and the two-year Treasury yield moved from 4.22% to 4.30%.
  • July CPI rose 0.1% for the month and eased to a 3.4% annual rate from 3.5% in June. Core inflation cooled to 2.5% annually. Shelter accounted for about two-thirds of the monthly increase, while gasoline prices fell 2.9%.
  • The July jobs report showed payrolls contracting by 23,000 against expectations for a gain of 83,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Investors initially read the softness as a reason for the Fed to stay on hold.

Geopolitical & Notable Global Developments:
  • U.S.–Iran relations followed a familiar pattern. Optimism about a deal to reopen traffic through the Strait of Hormuz faded through mid-August, and on August 30 the U.S. struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, the first acknowledged strike since late July. Iranian state media reported retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan.
  • Oil finished August roughly 3% higher, with Brent crude climbing back above $90 a barrel by month-end. The EIA’s August outlook projected Brent averaging near $85 for the third quarter and does not expect regional production to approach pre-conflict levels until early 2027.
  • Gold reached a three-month high in late August on a softer dollar, and the Treasury announced it would double buybacks of 10- to 30-year government debt, a move aimed at supporting liquidity in the long end of the bond market.

Here’s What to Look for this month:

Key events and data releases to watch in include:

  • September 4: August Jobs Report
  • September 11: August PI (Inflation) Release
  • September 15-16: Federal Reserve Meeting and Updated Economic Projections

August delivered gains alongside plenty of noise. Inflation continues to drift lower, though not as quickly as anyone would like. The labor market is cooling. Corporate earnings, particularly in technology, remain strong. September brings a Fed meeting with real uncertainty attached to it for the first time in a while, and the inflation report landing days beforehand will carry extra weight. As always, the day-to-day headlines tend to look larger up close than they do in the context of a long-term plan.

If you have thoughts about the month’s market activity, your portfolio, or your broader financial plan, please do not hesitate to reach out. We’d love to chat.

Sources:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_08072026.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

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